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| What's "Peak Oil"? The study of world oil supply, the calculation of the date of the decline in world oil supply, the effects of the decline in cheap and abundant energy and its financial, social and political ramifications.. | ||||||||||
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BOSA
Supports :
BOSA has no political affiliation. To request ad hoc Peak Oil news, e-mail Michael Lardelli. |
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Adapting to Oil
Decline in Adelaide Sites, Discussion and
Newsletters |
To
build our entire civilisation on the existence
of
a vital but
limited resource was a very, very serious mistake.
The
Peak Oil question and the environmental problem
The Peak Oil issue, is part of the problem of unsustainability. But very different!
The Environmental
Problem
Given a "business as usual" oil supply, for the next couple of decades we may have the luxury of choice of whether to use "green power" and whether we continue to deplete our freshwater resources before they give up.
But Oil supply is
different.
Peak Oil is Not about "choosing to do the right thing"! There is no choice! It is about the physical, geological reality, expected to be very obvious sometime before 2012.
That means our affluent way of life will no longer be possible because it is inextricably linked to the ever-growing consumption of a limited resource - OIL.
After the Peak in oil flow, there will be NO CHOICE. The message is NOT "Please be aware of this issue and if you can, please try to do the right thing".
The message is:
"PREPARE FOR AN UNAVOIDABLE CHANGE THAT WILL AFFECT YOUR LIFE".
Petrol
prices will rise and rise
Oil Companies
South Australia's RAA does a good job in trying to keep the oil companies honest as the price goes up and down. Oil companies nip a bit of profit when the Singapore price falls a few cents and this saving is only passed on to the motorist after a few days profitable delay. This is not a major price factor.
World Oil Supply
The underlying cause of price rises is the lack of spare capacity between world oil supply and world demand. It is believed that the world may have peaked in conventional oil supply in 2005. Now those third world nations which cannot afford $50 a barrel oil are forced to do without it and suffer the dreadful result. This therefore holds the price steady for the rich countries like Australia who can still afford to pay.
Australian Oil
Supply
Australia has 20 million people and there are 13.2 million motor vehicles, each travelling on average 15,300 kilometres annually. Petrol taxes are the lowest in the OECD outside North America.
Australia is another nation with declining oil production. Australia both supplies the world market and buys from the world market. At the moment, we are perhaps 80% self sufficient. Our self sufficiency is scheduled to decline such that APPEA estimate that Australia's oil deficit could be in the range A$12- 25 billion by 2015. We are therefore locked into the world oil market and so are our petrol and diesel prices.
South Australian
Petrol Supply
Adelaide is in a riskier position of sudden oil supply disruptions. The oil refinery at Port Stanvac no longer functions so Adelaide is supplied by petrol tanker from Singapore every few weeks. The oil companies work on a just-in-time basis and supplies have fallen as low as a few days supply. Given the strained world oil supply, the likelihood that Adelaide will be temporarily dry becomes more likely.
Michael Dwyer -
Web site
administrator
15/6/07